Outer Banks Real Estate

Mortgage Market in Review

Market Comment Mortgage bond prices remained nearly unchanged last week holding interest rates steady. Rates rose following the release of consumer price index data released Wednesday that showed more inflation than economists estimated. However, the bond market recovered the losses Thursday following weaker than expected LEI and Philadelphia Fed survey data. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans remained unchanged. The preliminary first quarter gross domestic product data Thursday will be the most important event this week. Durable goods orders, the Treasury auctions, income, outlays, and consumer sentiment will also be important. The market will close early Friday ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday the following Monday. LOOKING AHEAD Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis Durable Goods Orders Wednesday, May 24, 8:30 am, et Down 0.7% Important. An indication of the demand for "big ticket" items. Weakness may lead to lower rates. New Home Sales Wednesday, May 24, 10:00 am, et Down 5.1% Important. An indication of economic strength and credit demand. A decrease may lead to lower rates. 2-year Treasury Note Auction Wednesday, May 24, 1:30 pm, et None Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. Q1 Preliminary GDP Thursday, May 25, 8:30 am, et Up 5.8% Very important. The aggregate measure of US economic production. Weakness may lead to lower rates. Existing Home Sales Thursday, May 25, 10:00 am, et Down 2.0% Low importance. An indication of mortgage credit demand. A significant decrease may lead to lower rates. 5-year Treasury Note Auction Thursday, May 25, 1:30 pm, et None Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. Personal Income and Outlays Friday, May 26, 8:30 am, et Income up 0.8%, Outlays up 0.7% Important. A measure of consumers’ ability to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Friday, May 26, 10:00 am, et None Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. Early Market Close Friday, May 26, 2:00 pm, et None Important. Shortened trading session ahead of extended holiday weekend may lead to market volatility. Fundamental Week Mortgage bonds traded in negative territory last week as traders digested data showing signs of inflation. Fear and emotion dominated trading. The abundance of fundamental data this week opens the door for additional market volatility. If the data this week reinforces the view that the economy is strengthening with price pressures, mortgage bonds will continue to fall pushing mortgage interest rates higher. However, if the data comes in weaker than expected then a portion of the recent losses could be recouped. Mortgage interest rates rose last week. Despite the negative movements, rates remain historically low. Now is a great time to avoid the uncertainty surrounding continued market volatility by locking your loan. Capitalizing on current levels protects against future volatility. To unsubscribe, please hit "reply" and include unsubscribe in the subject line. Copyright 2006. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market Information Services, Inc. www.ratelink.com  The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, however no representation or warranties are written or implied.

     MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-May 22nd, 2006    

OBX Swim Club

The Outer Banks Swim Club is gearing up for another fun summer swimming schedule.  The team swims at the Outer Banks Family YMCA and participates in USA Swimming in Virginia.  It is a sport that teaches such great life lessons.   

Google Trends on the Outer Banks (OBX)

Google Trends is a new product that allows you to see what terms people are searching for.  I looked at the following words:

• Nags Head NC
• Corolla NC
• Outer Banks NC
• Duck NC
• OBX

Here are the results.  It is amazing how popular the OBX phrase has become.  It has outpaced "Outer Banks" for the majority of time since tracking began in 2004. 

Blog about Real Estate Marketing

I found a new blog about The Future of Real Estate Marketing.  The author Joel Burslem does a great job introducing new technology to Realtors.  With the market changing rapidly, Realtors will need to take advantage of tools that set them apart from the competition.

Market Comment Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing interest rates higher. The Federal Reserve raised rates again as expected, however also dashed the hopes of many by leaving the door open for additional Fed rate increases if future data deems them necessary. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose about 1/2 of a discount point. The consumer price index Thursday will be the most important event this week. Producer price index, housing starts, industrial production, capacity use, and leading economic indicators data will also be important. LOOKING AHEAD Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis Producer Price Index Tuesday, May 16, 8:30 am, et Up 0.7%, Core up 0.2% Important. An indication of inflationary pressures at the producer level. Weakness may lead to lower rates. Housing Starts Tuesday, May 16, 8:30 am, et Down 0.5% Important. A measure of housing sector strength. Larger than expected decreases may lead to lower rates. Industrial Production Tuesday, May 16, 9:15 am, et Up 0.4% Important. A measure of manufacturing sector strength. A lower than expected increase may lead to lower rates. Capacity Utilization Tuesday, May 16, 9:15 am, et 81.5% Important. A figure above 85% is viewed as inflationary. A decrease may lead to lower mortgage interest rates. Consumer Price Index Wednesday, May 17, 8:30 am, et Up 0.5%, Core up 0.2% Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower than expected increases may lead to lower rates. Leading Economic Indicators Thursday, May 18, 10:00 am, et Up 0.2% Important. An indication of future economic activity. Weakness may lead to lower rates. Philadelphia Fed Survey Thursday, May 18, 12:00 pm, et None Moderately important. A survey of business conditions in the Northeast. Weakness may lead to lower rates. Producer Price Index The producer price index is a measure of prices at the producer level and is important because it is the first inflation report to be released each month. Investors are typically able to gain an initial indication of inflationary pressures from the release. If producer prices are increasing, there is a tendency for producers to pass the increases on to consumers in the form of higher priced goods. It is important to note that the PPI is only a measure of goods, while the consumer price index is a measure of goods and services. It is possible for the price of goods to remain stable, while the price of services increases. In this scenario PPI would do little to warn of a change in inflationary pressures, while the CPI report would provide an indication of the inflationary effects of the service component. This distinction between the two reports shows why most analysts view the CPI as a more accurate indicator of inflation. Nevertheless, market participants still gain valuable insight into potential volatility in the financial markets from the PPI due to the early timing of the release. If this week’s producer price index release indicates falling price pressures, mortgage interest rates may improve. However, if the PPI release indicates an increase in price pressures, mortgage interest rates may push higher. A cautious approach to interest rate decisions is necessary during this time. To unsubscribe, please hit "reply" and include unsubscribe in the subject line. Copyright 2006. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market Information Services, Inc. www.ratelink.com The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, however no representation or warranties are written or implied.

     MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-May 15th, 2006    

Nags Head Fishing Pier Web Cam

Nags Head Fishing Pier has a cool Web Cam that you can control.  Zoom in, look on the beach, check the waves and even see the fish being caught. 

Monday morning links

I read a post on Savage Insights which is a blog by Dave Savage, the CEO of Mortgage Coach.  He posted a link to a satirical movie done by students at the Columbia School of Business.  Pretty timely post - the feds are meeting on Wednesday and will announce if they will increase the fed rate.  Most believe we will see a .25% increase and many hope that this will be the end for a while.   

Outer Banks News

Corolla is moving forward with incorporating the small town.  Corolla tried earlier but local politicians wanted to wait for the County unification vote which was overwhelmingly rejected last week.  You can find the details in this article from the Daily Advance.   

In other news, County Commissioner Stan White lost his bid for re-election to the Dare County Board of Commissioners.  He was defeated by Max Dutton who is unopposed in the general election in November. 

Mortgage Market in Review

Market Comment Mortgage bond prices fell last week pushing interest rates higher.  Market activity was subdued with a negative bias ahead of the jobs report released Friday.  Interest rates improved following the weaker than expected employment report, however, the improvement did not erase all the losses seen during the week. For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose about 1/4 of a discount point. The Fed meeting Tuesday will be the most important event this week. Retail sales, the 10-Year auction, trade data, and consumer sentiment will also be important. LOOKING AHEAD Economic Indicator Release Date & Time Consensus Estimate Analysis Fed Meeting Adjourns Wednesday, May 10, 2:15 pm, et 25 basis point  rate increase Important. Most expect the Fed to raise rates. Volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting. Business Inventories Thursday, May 11, 8:30 am, et Up 0.4% Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. A significantly larger increase may lead to lower rates. Retail Sales Thursday, May 11, 8:30 am, et Up 0.6% Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates. 10-year Treasury Note Auction Thursday, May 11, 1:30 pm, et None Important. Notes will be auctioned. Strong demand may lead to lower mortgage rates. Trade Data Friday, May 12, 8:30 am, et $67.5 billion deficit Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates. U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Friday, May 12, 10:00 am, et None Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates. Retail Sales Retail sales data is the first indication of weakness or strength in consumer spending released each month. The Bureau of the Census of the US Department of Commerce provides information on how much the consumer spends on the purchase of goods. This data provides the consumption part of the gross domestic product. Retail sales data represents merchandise sold for cash or credit by retailers. Durable goods, such as autos, make up 35% of the figure. The balance consists of non-durables such as gasoline, restaurants, and general merchandise. There are several drawbacks to the report. The data covers purchases of goods only, not services. It is also not adjusted for inflation and is extremely volatile. Recent high gasoline prices could make this week’s release very volatile. Continued gasoline price increases may eventually result in increased inflationary fears and higher mortgage interest rates. However, increased oil prices can also result in a slowdown of the economy, which can put downward pressure on mortgage interest rates. Fed officials have recently remarked how vital the data ahead will be in determining future Fed actions. The retail sales data and all the other data releases may be overshadowed a bit by the Fed meeting early in the week which is likely to set the tone for trading. However, the data will still be relevant and has the ability to cause market volatility. Therefore a cautious approach to mortgage interest rate decisions is necessary ahead of the data this week. To unsubscribe, please hit "reply" and include unsubscribe in the subject line. Copyright 2006. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market Information Services, Inc. www.ratelink.com  The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, however no representation or warranties are written or implied.

     MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-May 8th, 2006    

Currituck County Flood Maps

Currituck County recently updated their flood maps.  You can download a pdf version and see where your property falls.  The big issue with the four wheel drive area seems to have resolved itself.  Lloyds of London is still offering flood insurance but it is pretty expensive.