I received an email from a vacation homeowner and I thought I would share his questions and thoughts (with permission) and my response.
Ronnie---
I came across your site by accident. I can't remember who linked to you.
In any event, I'd be curious to learn your take on the Hatteras market.
I own an oceanfront cottage and, of course, am interested in what the
future holds.
Here is my amateur 10 cents:
I've been tracking some similar properties that are for sale (my house
is not). For example, one has been on the market more than six months.
It was first listed at a truly outrageous price. Then, the seller cut
10%. Nothing happened. Finally, the seller cut another 5%. My guess is
that he'll have to come down at least another 5% to get some interest.
Nonetheless, I can't help but wonder if prices may fall substantially
further a) because of all the new Inner Banks housing that will soon
come on line; and b) because weekly rental rates won't cover high mortgage payments. If so, could another 15-25% fall in prices be possible?
My response:
I am glad you found my site.
Here are my thoughts on what is happening with the Outer Banks Real Estate Market Conditions:
Hatteras
Real Estate is moving slow like everything else on the Outer Banks.
Oceanfront properties are moving the slowest of all up and down the
coast. Price drops are typically the largest mover on the MLS system.
Market stats for the last 7 days are:
- New Listings - 125
- Price Changes (drops) - 193
- Sold - 30
- Expired Listings - 91
As
you can see from the numbers, we have a correction in progress. The
problem is that many owners believe they should still be able to demand
2004 prices with modest appreciation gains. That is not the market we
are in now. Some Realtors have a flat percentage they suggest dropping
the price to increase interest. I don't believe it is that easy. I
had a boss early in my career that had a saying "It is what it is".
While we laughed at it's simplicity, he applied it to almost any
situation. The market will bear what the market will bear and no
more.
Another factor is the rental market. The rental season started off hot
at the beginning of the year but plateaued in late spring. I have
talked to a few rental agencies that are up 5% over last years
rentals. Some are down considerably. In most situations, the rentals will not cover the entire costs of the vacation property.
I
am not sure how much lower prices will drop. Many believe that the
market will not pick up until next spring or summer. Large drops in
interest rates might help but that does not appear to be in the cards.
The housing developments on the Inner Banks are not comparable
to the Outer Banks Market. It is typically a different investor,
vacationer or homeowner. Many investors are moving that direction
because of the relatively low cost of waterfront property vs. the high
cost and limited availability of land on the Outer Banks.
I hope this answered your questions. Please feel free to contact me if you have any additional questions.