For anyone that has every taken a statistics class, you have probably heard the title phrase. In the Real Estate world, many use statistics to prove their point. The National Association of Realtors announced yesterday the big drop in existing home sales but put the "statistical spin" by saying the good news is that the median price increased.
Everyone wants to know about Real Estate market conditions on the Outer Banks. I found an article on a local blog that bothered me. Much of the article focused on the national and regional (North Carolina) Real Estate numbers. Real Estate is local and what happens in Charlotte and the Triangle has nothing to do with the market conditions on the Outer Banks. The problem was how the author portrayed the Outer Banks Real Estate Market as "hot".
The bright spot on the Outer Banks statistics is found in comparing
homes under contract in the first two months of 2007 compared to 2006.
With 211 units contracted this year compared to 123 last, that’s an
increase of 72%. Land sales remain highly depressed on that same
measure: down 67% compared to 2006. Tip O’Neill once said that all
politics is local, and real estate is all about the specific location.
The top submarkets for homes on the Outer Banks, based on activity so
far this year, are Kill Devil Hills, Nags Head, Kitty Hawk, Corolla,
and Duck. Another bright spot is that median pricing in February is
down only 1% from the same month in 2006. Back in July of 2006, the
median price was down nearly 20% from a year earlier.
Here are some of my observations
- The market YTD is down 30% over the same 6 months last year.
- The top submarkets for homes - did he say Corolla? Corolla is hurting today. Some of the developments have 7 years of inventory on the market today.
- The fact is that home prices on the Outer Banks are down between 15 - 25% from prices three years ago.
Don't get me wrong. I make my living providing mortgages to people that want a piece of the Outer Banks. I understand people trying to keep a positive attitude. The problem I have with this article is how the facts are skewed to make buyers believe it is a hot market.
There are some great opportunities available today. Some sellers are willing to make significant concessions. The number of foreclosures on the Outer Banks seem to be picking up correction - thanks to Chris Toolan from Village Realty for pointing out that Outer Banks Foreclosures are down compared to last year - more on that later. And finally, income from rentals is strong according to the rental companies I have spoken with. It sure does help offset the cost of owning that second home at the beach. Feel free to drop me a line if you have any questions.