Outer Banks Real Estate

Astronomy discovery - and it's a pretty big deal

We truly live in amazing times. 

For the first time, we have an optical image of another planet orbiting a star.  The picture above is from Astronomy Picture of the Day.  You can read all of the details on the Discover blog.  All the nerds in the house say YE-AH! 

Politics in America

So if you have not heard, election day is only eight days away.  Thank goodness!  My friends... I have had enough of Joe the Plumber and Obama running against W. 

I did find a cool site that showed election results by state since the beginning of time.  It is interesting to see the swing of support.  Be sure to vote - let your voice be heard. 

The US State Credit Responsibility Elimination We (they) Demand Updated

I will refer to it as the U.S. SCREWeD bill for short.  I know it is a stretch for the name - the creative juices don't seem to be flowing tonight.  I am concerned about the direction our country appears to be heading.  The United States is looking more like the communist states we all love to hate.

So how much debt are they trying to get us to swallow?  The flavor of the day is $700,000,000,000 (thats B for Billion) to one trillion dollars.  Maybe even more.  That is a lot of zeros.  For example:

• A million seconds ago was 11 days - The ECU Pirates were still undefeated and Hurricane Ike was about to slam into Galveston Texas.
• A billion seconds ago was 31 years - Apple Computer was formed - not many people in the world had this thing called a personal computer.  Jimmy Carter had just been elected President.  Aerosmith had a hit single called Walk this Way - So did Captain and Tennille with Muskrat Love.  I still don't understand why that song was a hit.
• A trillion seconds ago was roughly 31,600 years ago.  Scientist believe the last of the Neanderthals were dying off - (think of the Geico Caveman without the nice clothes). If you stacked one trillion dollar bills - the pile would be over 67,000 miles high or one quarter the way to our moon.

The details are still sketchy - I am going to simplify things in figures most of us can really understand.  The dollar bill.

• Banks took a dollar and loaned it to Dick and Jane to buy a house.
• The banks bundled the dollar loan with a bunch of other dollar loans and sold them to investment banks in the US and abroad.
• Firms such as Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns (remember them - they were so last month) bought and traded those securities that were now worth $1.15 each.
• Subprime mortgages were a little riskier (which means higher profit margin) started to fail.
• Values dropped quickly - investment firms spent $1.05  to buy the loan but could only sell the loan for 80 cents.
• Trouble spread to Conventional loans - think Fannie and Freddie.  A huge bailout that nobody seems to even care about now.
• Firms have tons of cash tied up in securities they can't afford to sell. 
• Markets react to worries and the value of the securities continues to drop.  Massive bleeding and no band aids. 
• The markets are so scared that nobody wants the bundled $1 loans for what they are truly worth today (around 75 cents).  They are trading at 50 cents - values that reflect a market in much worse shape than what we are in. 

The government is proposing to the Congress (and the public) to allow them to buy the securities and hold on to them long enough for the markets to bounce back.  The question I have is how much are they (really we) going to pay for that $1 loan that is now worth 50 cents.  If they offer 75 cents, the banks still lose at least 25 cents.  Or do they offer the full $1.05 and a get out of jail card to Wall Street.  I am sure the devil is in the details and we should all know more by the end of the week. 

Update:  I found a great article on the Mortgage Insider about how the plan could actually work.  The article quotes Bill Gross from Pimco and below is an excerpt and the key to this possibly working:

Q. But how can the government make money if Bernanke is saying the government will pay above market prices for the assets in order to recapitalize the banks?

A. “He is right,” Gross said. “There is this delicate balance.”

Gross said the government must find the right price between the market value of the assets they are buying and the value they have on paper at the banks holding them.

As an example, Gross said Pimco recently paid 65 cents on the dollar for a pool of mortgage-related assets. He said distressed loans and securities can trade anywhere from 20 cents on the dollar to 80 cents on the dollar, but 65 cents is a good benchmark.

Pimco expects to earn a double-digit return on its money for the 65 cents on the dollar it paid. The trick for the government is to find the right price between 65 cents and 100 cents on the dollars. The closer it gets to 100 cents on the dollar, the better banks will like the deal. But the closer it stays to 65 cents, the better for taxpayers. Gross said government must be careful and find the best compromise price, which means taxpayers will not lose money and may earn a profit.

Gross said 65 cents on the dollar assumes as many as 30 percent of the loans being purchased will end in foreclosure, and for every home that ends in foreclosure the investor gets as little as 40 cents on the dollar.

“It’s certainly possible if done right for the Treasury to make money for the tax payer,” Gross said.

 

Saw a funny offer today:

SUBJECT: REQUEST FOR URGENT BUSINESS RELATIONSHIP

DEAR AMERICAN:

I NEED TO ASK YOU TO SUPPORT AN URGENT SECRET BUSINESS RELATIONSHIP WITH A TRANSFER OF FUNDS OF GREAT MAGNITUDE.

I AM MINISTRY OF THE TREASURY OF THE REPUBLIC OF AMERICA. MY COUNTRY HAS HAD CRISIS THAT HAS CAUSED THE NEED FOR LARGE TRANSFER OF FUNDS OF 800 BILLION DOLLARS US. IF YOU WOULD ASSIST ME IN THIS TRANSFER, IT WOULD BE MOST PROFITABLE TO YOU.

I AM WORKING WITH MR. PHIL GRAM, LOBBYIST FOR UBS, WHO WILL BE MY REPLACEMENT AS MINISTRY OF THE TREASURY IN JANUARY. AS A SENATOR, YOU MAY KNOW HIM AS THE LEADER OF THE AMERICAN BANKING DEREGULATION MOVEMENT IN THE 1990S. THIS TRANSACTIN IS 100% SAFE.

THIS IS A MATTER OF GREAT URGENCY. WE NEED A BLANK CHECK. WE NEED THE FUNDS AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. WE CANNOT DIRECTLY TRANSFER THESE FUNDS IN THE NAMES OF OUR CLOSE FRIENDS BECAUSE WE ARE CONSTANTLY UNDER SURVEILLANCE. MY FAMILY LAWYER ADVISED ME THAT I SHOULD LOOK FOR A RELIABLE AND TRUSTWORTHY PERSON WHO WILL ACT AS A NEXT OF KIN SO THE FUNDS CAN BE TRANSFERRED.

PLEASE REPLY WITH ALL OF YOUR BANK ACCOUNT, IRA AND COLLEGE FUND ACCOUNT NUMBERS AND THOSE OF YOUR CHILDREN AND GRANDCHILDREN TO WALLSTREETBAILOUT@TREASURY.GOV SO THAT WE MAY TRANSFER YOUR COMMISSION FOR THIS TRANSACTION. AFTER I RECEIVE THAT INFORMATION, I WILL RESPOND WITH DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT SAFEGUARDS THAT WILL BE USED TO PROTECT THE FUNDS.

YOURS FAITHFULLY MINISTER OF TREASURY PAULSON

I found another interesting graphic that really shows the amount of damage that has already been done.  Good night - I am out.

It is time for a change...

Tired of McCain, Obama, Biden and Palin.  If you have not heard, some friends have asked me to step in as an independent party leader...

Now for a running mate - since the other candidates are picking complete opposites of themselves, maybe I should do the same.  That means I need an older grumpy guy to be my "Number 2".  Any ideas? 

Ten things I will miss about living on the Outer Banks

Our family recently finished the move to Cary N.C.  We leave behind a great community and some great friends.  I thought I would post the top ten things I will miss about the Outer Banks.

1. Friends - The Outer Banks is a small community.  35,000 year round residents make the place feel like a small town for 7 months out of the year.  You really get to know your neighbor.  Our family developed so many friendships over the last five years - we will see if they are still friendly when we want to crash at their house over the summer...
2. Family - We do have family on the Outer Banks but we didn't get to see them as much as we would have liked.  What we did see were the family members from out of town.  They liked vacationing on the Outer Banks and we benefited.  It is great catching up with folks at less stressful times than Christmas and Thanksgiving. 
3. Outer Banks Swim Club - USA Swimming on the Outer Banks.  The club is made up of a great group of parents, coaches and swimmers.  If you live on the Outer Banks and have a child between 5 and 18, check out the program. 
4. Outer Banks YMCA - I became involved with the YMCA almost immediately after moving to the area.  The organization is top notch.  Great leadership - Great members - Great board. 
5. The Beach - I didn't make it to the beach as much as I would have liked in 2008.  Career changes and this thing called "moving" had quite a bit to do with my farmer's tan.  We now have more beach gear (surfboards, body boards, fins, wetsuits and beach chairs) than anyone in Cary.
6. Internet Connections - this one is a little hard to splain.  I have met some great people through the internet.  Sounds strange but it is true.  From the ex-Mayor Bob Muller,  the anonymous Monticello, Paula the Surf Mom, Bill Bell, the folks from Village Realty and too many others to mention in one post - these online identities became close friends in a short period of time. 
7. Friends in the Real Estate Business.  There were over 1,000 Realtors, a lot of Mortgage Lenders and Builders when I moved to the Outer Banks.  The numbers have shrunk considerably but there are some good ones sticking out the slow season.  If you want some names of people I would recommend, give me a call or send an email.
8. Beautiful night skies.  Seems like a small thing but going out at night with almost zero light polution is awesome.  Great place to view meteor showers and celestial events. 
9. Fishing - Great activity on the Outer Banks.  One of my favorite fishing trips was on the Swordfish - they caught a 1,000 pound Blue Marlin a month before our trip.  The Captain and crew are great - we caught 5 Marlin that day and also loaded the cooler with dolphin and tuna.  I would highly reccommend their services.
10. Fresh Seafood - buying seafood at Harris Teeter just doesn't seem right.  Hopefully we can find a great fresh market close to home. 

Enough of the warm and fuzzies.  If you are mentioned or linked in the list above, expect a call when I am looking for a place to stay for the long weekend.

Nags Head discusses Beach Nourishment

The Town of Nags Head discussed Beach Nourishment at their August 20th meeting - you can read all of the details in the article by The Outer Banks Sentinel.  I know this is a touchy subject for many, but there are medications that can alleviate some of the symptoms associated with beach nourishment discussions...

Fireball on the Outer Banks

Last night while rolling back into town, I saw my brightest fireball to date.  It happened at 10:00  while driving north towards Southern Shores on the bypass.  It might have been an early start to the Perseids Meteor Shower which will happen over the next 10 days.

The Outer Banks is such a great place to view Meteor Showers - the lack of light pollution and the fact that you are on a beach makes viewing that much better.

Fireballs are much larger and brighter than a typical meteor.  Many might mistake a fireball for fireworks - not last night's version.  It looked like a flare shot from above towards the beach.  Hope everyone has a chance to view the heavenly show next week. 

What not to do with a bullet proof vest

Seems Eastern North Carolina might have an entry for this year's Darwin Awards.  Here is a synopsis of the event.

• Guys get off work and buy beer
• One guy owns a bullet proof vest and decides to pull it out after a few
• Guy dons vest and asks beer swilling buddies to "stab him"
• Friend tries to stab dude in vest and the knife bounces off
• Guy wearing vest decides to try to stab himself to prove how tough the vest/he is
• Guy dies 20 minutes later at hospital

You can read the dry details from the Daily Reflector article. 

What the Outer Banks really needs

This article has nothing to to with current issues such as Beach Nourishment (which we need), a Mid Currituck Bridge (which we need), Beach Closures on Hatteras Island (which we don't need).  I wanted to address the economic viability of our community during the soft years.

The Outer Banks is a small community.  Fluctuating anywhere between 30,000 and 35,000 permanent residents.  Our market is all about the housing and servicing of people.  Part of that service is selling properties.  Look in your home town - does anyone have numbers close to this. 

• 1 out of 30 people that live on the Outer Banks are Realtors
• 1 out of 100 are tied to the sale of property (mortgage lenders, attorneys and support staff for those industries)
• I would guess that 2 out of 30 people are tied to the rental industry (maybe even more).  Reservations, maintenance, Housecleaning, IT, Admin etc.
• Then add the other services that solely cater to the vacationers - Restaurants that are only open during the season, Beach Rental Companies, Charter Fishing, Cooks that shop and cook your meal, putt putt golf courses - the list goes on and on.

So out of the 35,000 folks that live here - I would be willing to guess that it would add up to 25% to 40% of the total workforce caters to folks from out of town.  That is what many would call having too many eggs in one basket. 

What are the solutions?  It is a tough question and even a tougher answer.  Most solutions cost money - and many Counties and Cities don't have a lot of cash laying around to spend.  Many are operating very lean as it is. 

If I were King (King Roach doesn't sound so good), I would focus on our strengths first.  We are in the people business and we are great at what we do.  Build some infrastructure to bring bodies down in the shoulder and off season. 

• A nice convention center would be a start and cater to businesses that want an alternative place to host their meetings.  Many major cities have these but we have something they don't - that beach.  You ask any company in Virginia - would you like to host our meeting, our users group or sales meeting on the Outer Banks?  I bet the overwhelming answer would be yes.
• Build the competitive pools that Dare County is considering.  We have about 1,500 swimmers in Tidewater Virginia.  Those swimmers (and especially their parents) would love to spend a long weekend between October through March.  700 families coming once or twice a month would not hurt anyone's feelings.   
• Host weekend sports tournaments - Parks and Rec have great facilities.  Friends we know that come down can not get over the quality of our fields. 

I am sure there are many other alternatives and I would love to hear your ideas.  Comment away.

ORV access hearing today on Capitol Hill

The Energy and Natural Resources Committee of the US Senate will hear from two sides about the ORV beach closures on the Outer Banks.  Listed below are the details from the committee website:

National Parks Subcommittee Hearing: to receive testimony on pending legislation (SD-366)
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
02:30 PM

The purpose of the hearing is to receive testimony on the following bills: S. 1816, to authorize the Secretary of the Interior to establish a commemorative trail in connection with the Women's Rights National Historical Park to link properties that are historically and thematically associated with the struggle for women's suffrage, and for other purposes; S. 2093, to amend the Wild and Scenic Rivers Act to designate a segment of the Missisquoi and Trout Rivers in the State of Vermont for study for potential addition to the National Wild and Scenic Rivers System; S. 2535, to revise the boundary of the Martin Van Buren National Historic Site, and for other purposes; S. 2561, to require the Secretary of the Interior to conduct a theme study to identify sites and resources to commemorate and interpret the Cold War; S. 3011, to amend the Palo Alto Battlefield National Historic Site Act of 1991 to expand the boundaries of the historic site, and for other purposes; S. 3113, to reinstate the Interim Management Strategy governing off-road vehicle use in the Cape Hatteras National Seashore, North Carolina, pending the issuance of a final rule for off-road vehicle use by the National Park Service; S. 3148, to modify the boundary of the Oregon Caves National Monument, and for other purposes; S. 3158, to extend the authority for the Cape Cod National Seashore Advisory Commission; S. 3226, to rename the Abraham Lincoln Birthplace National Historic Site in the State of Kentucky as the Abraham Lincoln Birthplace National Historical Park; S. 3247, to provide for the designation of the River Raisin National Battlefield Park in the State of Michigan; and H.R. 5137, to ensure that hunting remains a purpose of the New River Gorge National River.

Witnesses

Panel 1
The Honorable Carl Levin , US Senate
The Honorable Hillary Clinton , US Senator
The Honorable Elizabeth Dole , US Senator
The Honorable John Dingell , US House of Representatives

Panel 2
Daniel Wenk , Deputy Director for operations, National Park Service, Department of the Interior
Joel Holtrop , Deputy Chief, National Forest Service

Panel 3
The Honorable Warren Judge , Chairman, Dare County Board of Commissioners
Derb Carter , Director, Carolinas Office, Southern Environmental Law Center
Coline Jenkins , President, Elizabeth Cady Stanton Trust
William Braunlich , President, Monroe County Historical Society

For those that don't have the senate channel, you can watch streaming video from the following site.  Just select live webcast from the left menu bar.